Contents
Bitcoin’s market is maturing, with signs of a renewed euphoria phase on the horizon.
Edited By: Jibin Mathew George
- Bitcoin’s price growth may slow down, but key indicators seemed to point to future market expansion
- Institutional interest and reduced sell-side pressure can underline potential for sustained growth
As the market continues to evolve, recent reports are drawing intriguing comparisons to the 2015-2018 market cycle, revealing key structural parallels that could signal significant growth in the near future.
While price growth has slowed down, key indicators have revealed the market is maturing. With rising institutional interest and a potentially new euphoria phase, this could signal a new phase of expansion.
Similarities to the 2025-2018 cycle
One notable trend is the diminishing rate of price appreciation with each cycle. As Bitcoin [BTC] has grown into a multi-trillion-dollar asset, the capital required to drive further growth has naturally risen, slowing the rate of price gains.
Additionally, drawdowns in the current cycle have been relatively shallow, typically ranging between 10.1% and 23.6% – Mirroring the patterns observed in the 2015-2017 cycle.
These pullbacks reflect the steady and sustained demand for Bitcoin, supported by greater institutional interest and its rising acceptance as a macro asset.
With the market potentially transitioning into a euphoric phase, like in previous cycles, the current position of Bitcoin means that another period of accelerated growth may be on the horizon soon.
Realized cap – A sign of a maturing market?
The hike in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap offers some important insights into the market’s evolution too.
During the 2011-2015 cycle, realized capital surged by approximately 122x, fueled by Bitcoin’s early exponential adoption. However, as the market matured, growth ratios have steadily declined in subsequent cycles – A sign of Bitcoin’s transition to a more capital-intensive and structurally mature market.
In the current cycle, Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x so far – Well below the 5.7x peak of the previous cycle. This growth mirrors the patterns seen in the 2015-2018 cycle, with sharp hikes expected as the market enters its euphoric phase.
While Bitcoin’s size today demands significantly more capital to drive similar growth, the sustained acceleration of realized capital could point to potential for market expansion.
Closer look at sell-side pressure and investor behavior
By tracking the long-term to short-term holder supply ratio, we can gauge whether the market is in an accumulation or distribution phase.
A rising ratio means that more coins are being held, indicating a dominance of HODLing behavior. On the contrary, a decline shows active selling by long-term holders.
In the 2023–2025 cycle, we’ve seen two significant waves of distribution, similar to those in early 2021 and late 2017. These distribution phases were followed by price rallies, demonstrating that reduced sell-side pressure can enable sustained bullish momentum – At least until demand exhaustion sets in.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025–2026
Bull market and euphoria phase
Bitcoin’s move into the euphoria phase may be driven by market structure changes, not just a supply shock. Since July 2024, exchange balances dropped from 3.1M BTC to 2.7M BTC.
While some see this as individual withdrawals, most of the decline has been due to coins moving into institutional custodial wallets – Mainly from Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
After the SEC approved Spot ETFs in January 2024, demand surged, causing Bitcoin to migrate into Coinbase’s custodial wallets.
While exchange balances have dropped, the actual supply available for trading may not be as limited, indicating a structural shift in the market.